# Predictive Analytics with Excel LiveLessons (Video Training), Downloadable Video: Exponential Smoothing and Autoregression

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## Videos can be viewed on: Windows 8, Windows XP, Vista, 7, and all versions of Macintosh OS X including the iPad, and other platforms that support the industry standard h.264 video codec. Requires the free QuickTime Player software.

\$44.99

### Part 1: Moving Averages, Downloadable Version

Lesson 1: Length of Moving Averages

Understand essential predictive analytics terminology that is used in later lessons and throughout the field.

Lesson 2: Length's Effect on Level

Review moving averages, and understand how the length of a moving average influences its behavior.

Lesson 3: Weighted and Unweighted Moving Averages

Learn about unweighted and weighted moving averages, and use weighting schemes to control how a moving average responds to changes in the underlying data.

Lesson 4: The Moving Average Tool and Trendlines

Use Excel's Moving Average tool to create and chart moving averages, and understand its limitations.

Duration: 00:53:19  File Size: 100 MB

\$44.99

### Lesson 2

Lesson 5: Self-Correction

Discover the intuitively rich concept of exponential smoothing, and learn how it can be used to create remarkably accurate forecasts.

Lesson 6: Smoothing Constant and Exponentiation

Quickly understand the role of exponents in "exponential smoothing."

Lesson 7: The Exponential Smoothing Tool

Use Excel's Exponential Smoothing tool, and learn how to make its output more informative.

Lesson 8: Detrending and Retrendng

Use trends in time series, understand the special problems they create for predictive analytics, and use differencing to deal with those issues.

Lesson 9: Choosing the Smoothing Constant

Optimize the value of the smoothing constant by using Excel's Solver add-in.

Duration: 01:05:57  File Size: 123 MB

\$54.99

### Lesson 3

Lesson 10: Simple, two-variable regression

Master the fundamentals of regression analysis, the basis for auto-regression and one of the two principal methods of quantitative forecasting.

Lesson 11: TREND() and LINEST()

Use the Excel worksheet functions LINEST() and TREND() to create forecasts based on time series.

Lesson 12: Problems Using Time as a Predictor

Understand the special problems that the passage of time poses for auto-regression approaches to predictive analytics.

Duration: 00:44:04  File Size: 81 MB

\$9.99

### Lesson 4

Lesson 13: Simple single lag autoregression

Discover the concept and uses of autocorrelation functions and partial autocorrelation functions. Create Correlograms in Excel charts to easily interpret these functions.

Lesson 14: Correlograms and moving average time series

Step through the analysis of a trended time series: detrending, using autocorrelation functions, forecasting first differences, optimizing alpha, and getting the one-step-ahead forecast.

Duration: 00:23:20  File Size: 42 MB

## Description

• Edition: 1st
• ISBN-10: 0-7897-5371-5
• ISBN-13: 978-0-7897-5371-7

3 Hours of Video Instruction

Overview

In just three hours, discover how to create accurate forecasts and predictions with Microsoft Excel's powerful predictive analytics tools!

Description

Moneyball made predictive analytics famous: now, you can put it to work! In just three hours of expert video, Conrad Carlberg will teach you all the core skills you need to create accurate predictions of your own with Microsoft Excel–hands-on! Learn how to use Excel to design and run the two most basic analyses used in quantitative forecasting: smoothing and regression. Explore the self-correcting nature of exponential smoothing, discover how to use autoregression to create effective forecasts, and get comfortable using Excel's powerful Data Analysis and Solver add-ins. Understand trends in time series, and master differencing, the most important technique for dealing with them. Finally, learn about ACFs and PACFs, and uncover their patterns to identify the best ways to forecast any given time series. These hands-on videos are accompanied by Excel workbooks containing all sample data and analyses: workbooks you can easily replicate and adapt for your own needs!

Conrad Carlberg is a multiple recipient of Microsoft's Most Valuable Professional (MVP) award for Microsoft Excel. He has written twelve books about quantitative analysis with Excel, including Predictive Analytics: Microsoft® Excel. As President of Network Control Systems, Inc., he leads the development of quality control and forecasting tools for the health industry. Carlberg holds a Ph.D. in statistics from the University of Colorado, and has 25 years' experience applying advanced analytical techniques.

Skill Level

• All Levels
• Beginner
• Intermediate

What You Will Learn

• The essentials and basic terminology of predictive analysis
• How to use Excel's core predictive analysis tools, including the Data Analysis and Solver add-ins
• How to perform quantitative analyses using smoothing and regression
• How to create effective forecasts using autoregression
• How trends in time series work, and how to handle the challenges they create
• How to choose the best approach to forecast any time series

Who Should Take This Course

• Every businessperson, scientist, analyst, and student who wants to master the essentials of predictive analytics

Course Requirements

• Basic experience with Microsoft Excel
• Basic knowledge of simple statistical analysis techniques

Introduction

Part 1: Moving Averages

Lesson 1: Length of Moving Averages

Lesson 2: Length's Effect on Level

Lesson 3: Weighted and Unweighted Moving Averages

Lesson 4: The Moving Average Tool and Trendlines

Part 2: Smoothing

Lesson 5: Self-Correction

Lesson 6: Smoothing Constant and Exponentiation

Lesson 7: The Exponential Smoothing Tool

Lesson 8: Detrending and Retrendng

Lesson 9: Choosing the Smoothing Constant

Part 3: Regression

Lesson 10: Simple, two-variable regression

Lesson 11: TREND() and LINEST()

Lesson 12: Problems Using Time as a Predictor

Part 4: Autoregression

Lesson 13: Simple single lag autoregression

Lesson 14: Correlograms and moving average time series

Summary

About LiveLessons Video Training

LiveLessons Video Training series publishes hundreds of hands-on, expert-led video tutorials covering a wide selection of technology topics designed to teach you the skills you need to succeed. This professional and personal technology video series features world-leading author instructors published by your trusted technology brands: Addison-Wesley, Cisco Press, IBM Press, Pearson IT Certification, Prentice Hall, Sams, and Que. Topics include: IT Certification, Programming, Web Development, Mobile Development, Home and Office Technologies, Business and Management, and more. View all LiveLessons on InformIT at: http://www.informit.com/livelessons

The Lesson Workbooks developed for this LiveLesson

## Sample Content

### Excerpts

Introduction

Part 1: Moving Averages

Lesson 1: Length of Moving Averages

Lesson 2: Length's Effect on Level

Lesson 3: Weighted and Unweighted Moving Averages

Lesson 4: The Moving Average Tool and Trendlines

Part 2: Smoothing

Lesson 5: Self-Correction

Lesson 6: Smoothing Constant and Exponentiation

Lesson 7: The Exponential Smoothing Tool

Lesson 8: Detrending and Retrendng

Lesson 9: Choosing the Smoothing Constant

Part 3: Regression

Lesson 10: Simple, two-variable regression

Lesson 11: TREND() and LINEST()

Lesson 12: Problems Using Time as a Predictor

Part 4: Autoregression

Lesson 13: Simple single lag autoregression

Lesson 14: Correlograms and moving average time series

Summary